Re: PRC, etc. (part 2 of 3)
Re: my work that builds on mAIP (i.e., my work since 1992) is a/the key to PSing PRC
— Re: a key (“Re: the key” follows below) —
From my June 2021 write-up at youinsimulation.substack.com/p/part-1:
Again, it’s too late to be stealthy/covert about said preventing/subduing.
From my 2021 write-up at comedyvstrump2024.substack.com/p/summary-details (at this CvT24 URL, links can’t be added to the first part of the four-part title below):
My Amazon-/Microsoft-/VC-praised* AI-preneurship and the “simulation argument” indicate a >50% likelihood we live (partly) in a simcom that’ll feature my planned startup’s:
comedy-vs.-Trump-2024 (keywords: particular premi$e; NO COURAGE REQUIRED IF PART OF A SIMCOM; if courage required, might preclude/disrupt competing startups)
startup comedy (keywords: HELP** product-development groups to: 1) raise equity-crowdfunding, 2) spin off; disruptive to Amazon, Microsoft, etc.)
flowmantic comedy (keywords: flow is the state-of-mind that enables top performance/problem-solving; often, “group flow” sparks romantic attraction)
. . .
Summary (12 parts; details follow)
Re: “‘simulation argument’ . . . >50% likelihood”
Title of an October 2020 article on ScientificAmerican.com:
Do We Live in a Simulation? Chances Are About 50–50
From the Amazon.com page for 2019 book The Simulation Hypothesis:
(More) re: “>50%”: See the 12th part of this summary. Excerpt: “[L]ikelihood that we’re living in ‘base reality’ [i.e., not in a simulation], . . . concluded [Elon Musk, comedy investor and world’s richest person], was just ‘one in billions.’”
Keywords re: comedy-vs.-Trump-2024 (CvT24) might require courage
psychologist Mary Trump’s diagnosis of her uncle; . . . if re-elected, TrumP could leverage emergency powers
. . .
Precedent for CvT24
Bob Hope’s comedy amid Nazi bombing during World War II, en route to Hope becoming in 1944 the most popular entertainer in America
Premi$e for CvT24
Soon, many Ps will want to:
(continue) resist(ing) PsIMP
not resist, in part because my planned startup (MPS) will HELP to:
REWARD Ps who submit to indefinite-detention or an alternate form of threat-neutralization
ADVANCE human-longevity science, and medical research more generally
From 2014 book Ha!: The Science of When We Laugh and Why, by a cognitive neuroscientist (my emphases):
We laugh at what forces us to integrate incompatible goals or ideas . . .
. . . [O]ur brains act by letting ideas compete and argue for attention. This approach has its benefits, such as allowing us to reason, solve problems, and even read books. However, it sometimes leads to conflict, for example when we try to hold two or more inconsistent ideas at once. When that happens, our brains know of only one thing to do—laugh.
. . .
Re: “REWARD Ps”
Keywords: for each of us (e.g., non-Ps like me), maximizing the amount of time we’re in a flow state is a key to thriving amid “superstar-biased technological change” (e.g., amid “winner-take-all” markets); often, flow via collaboration—“group flow”—sparks romantic attraction; keeping collaborators happy . . . polyamory . . . ; human society is a type of “complex adaptive system”; CASs generate “order-for-free” (OFF) at “the boundary between order and chaos”; variant of OFF that seems very likely to emerge soon, partly/largely via group flow and MPS: orgies-for-free (O-F-F); women- FRIENDLY almost certainly; re: w-F and “seems very likely”: 1) “new science” re: “women, lust and infidelity,” 2) women are ~60% of recent college grads in many countries (e.g., the U.S.)., so MPS has to be w-F, 3) women can invest B-B-BILLION$ via crowd-investing (e.g, via equity-crowdfunding); partly via (the prospect of) O-F-F, MPS will provide Ps with a next-gen variant of Pablo Escobar’s La Catedral; MPS’s comedy that’ll educate Ps et al. about the continuous improvement of MPS’s LaCat.
— Re: MANY orgies (will) result from people adapting to said tech-change (i.e., to an evolutionary selection-pressure that’s intensifying rapidly) —
From 2018 book Tell Me What You Want: The Science of Sexual Desire and How It Can Help You Improve Your Sex Life:
I will offer an analysis of the largest-ever survey of Americans’ sexual fantasies . . .
89 percent [of respondents] reported fantasizing about threesomes, 74 percent about orgies, and 61 percent about gangbangs. . . . [T]he majority of women reported having each of these sex fantasies . . .
More than three-quarters of the men and women I surveyed hope to eventually act on their favorite sexual fantasies.
Tell Me’s author has a PhD, is a former lecturer at Harvard and is a Research Fellow at the Kinsey Institute.
— Precedent for O-F-F, via humans’ closest primate relative —
From 2018 book Untrue: Why Nearly Everything We Believe About Women, Lust, and Infidelity Is Wrong and How the New Science Can Set Us Free:
[T]he bonobo, with whom we share nearly 99 percent of our DNA . . .
A 2017 study comparing human, chimp and bonobo muscles confirmed what previous molecular research had suggested: “Bonobo muscles have changed the least [from our common ancestor], which means they are the closest we can get to having a ‘living’ ancestor,” according to the research head of the George Washington University Center for the Advanced Study of Human Paleobiology.
. . . [P]erhaps the most remarkable thing about bonobos . . . Basically, they seem to have sex constantly throughout the day, with just about anybody. Meredith Small reports being in a room of three hundred or so primatologists and journalists of some early footage of bonobos in 1991, before much was known about them. Moments after the film began, the room fell utterly silent as the assembled took in the spectacle of these primates having sex more times and in more positions and combinations than most humans in any culture could even imagine.
. . . [B]onobos have sex to diffuse potential tension—when they come upon a cache of food, for example, or a new bonobo troop, having sex is a way to bond and take the stress level down. Parish pointed out that this was happening as we observed them being fed. Once the food was flung down to them, at least one pair of bonobos began to “consort” immediately. Only then did they get down to the business of eating.
— Re: La Catedral —
From 2019 book Manhunters: How We Took Down Pablo Escobar:
We watched it all on TV—the surrender of Pablo Escobar.
None of us saw it coming, and we all took it badly—a crushing blow to our efforts to bring him to justice. It was June 19, 1991, and I was in Medellín, but Toft immediately called me back to Bogotá after the surrender was announced. We all watched the events live at the embassy in stunned silence: the yellow government chopper landing near the ranch-style prison that included a pool, jacuzzi, soccer field, and what we assumed were luxurious accommodations close to Escobar’s hometown of Envigado in the mountains outside Medellín. The sprawling “jail” was housed in the former Rehabilitation Centre for Drug Addicts, renovated to Escobar’s specifications, so spectacular that it was nicknamed La Catedral [my emphasis].
From 2018 book Mrs. Escobar: My Life With Pablo (my emphases):
I started going up to La Catedral several days a week. And while Pablo was meeting with somebody or playing soccer, I’d take the opportunity to organize, rearrange and mend anything in his room that needed attention, but I also looked through the many letters he’d started receiving. They were messages from women all over the world, many of them with photos showing the senders in various poses, many of them naked, and the common denominator was that they were offering themselves to him in exchange for money. I was even more surprised when I read shocking letters from women recalling their recent intimate encounters with him in great detail and inviting him for an encore whenever he wanted; others wrote flowery missives dreaming of another night of passion in La Catedral.
. . . At La Catedral he returned to his old predilection for beauty queens, who visited in droves . . .
Re: CvT24-in-a-simcom wouldn’t require courage
From 1997 book Story: Style, Structure, Substance, and the Principles of Screenwriting, by Robert McKee (my emphases):
Comedy contains myriad subgenres as well, each with its own conventions, but one overriding convention unites this mega-genre and distinguishes it from drama: Nobody gets hurt. In Comedy, the audience must feel that no matter how characters bounce off walls, no matter how they scream and writhe under the whips of life, it doesn’t really hurt.
Re: MPS leveraging emergency/war powers (EWPs) to prevent/subdue* Ps’ resistance
Partial formula:
your Rolodex + 20% finders’-fee I’m offering to pay + ~5 degrees of separation* between you and the U.S. president I need to partner with + 64% of my ownership stake in MPS in exchange for delegated EWPs[**] + . . . = you own ~4% of MPS
* ~6 total, 1 between you and me
[More details about my FFO are below.]
In particular, MPS would leverage EWPs to protect MPS-ers (e.g., part-owners via said finders’-fee or equity-crowdfunding; spin-offs from MPS that are part-owned by MPS).
. . .
* MPS’s EWPs would complement MPS’s La Catedral (i.e., EWPs, MLC: stick, carrot). [** EWPs are the ideal means of funding the launch of MPS. Presumably, the equity could/would be escrowed until the president left office.]
Re: much more information fits MPS-in-a-simcom
Example: Several similarities/parallels between me and a historical figure might INCREASE the likelihood that Ps won’t harm MPS-ers et al. In particular, the similarities might HELP MPS:
become a recipient of EWPs delegated by a U.S. president
make Ps CONFIDENT that they wouldn’t be denied MLC after submitting to indefinite detention or the like (i.e., wouldn’t be victimized by a bait-and-switch)
. . .
Praise for my AI-preneurship
From a 2004 email sent to me by Amazon.com’s first Director of Personalization:
Frank, I just spent about an hour surfing around your website with a bit of amazement. I run a [now defunct] little company [funded entirely by Amazon] . . . We are a team of folks who worked together at Amazon.com developing that company’s personalization and recommendations team and systems. We spent about 1.5 years thinking about what we wanted to build next. We thought a lot about online education tools. We thought a lot about classified ads and job networks. We thought a lot about reputation systems. We thought a bit about personalized advertising systems. We thought a lot about blogging and social networking systems. . . . I guess I’m mostly just fascinated that we’ve been working a very similar vein to the one you describe, without having a solid name for it (we call it “the age of the amateur” or “networks of shared experiences” instead of [AI-powered] CLLCS [i.e., customized lifelong learning and career services], but believe me, we are talking about the same patterns and markets, if not in exactly the same way). Thanks for sharing what you have—it’s fascinating stuff.
From a 2004 email sent to me by an analyst at then top VC firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson:
Hi Frank, Thanks for your time today. If you would like to provide us with further information about your [business] plan [for providing CLLCS], we would be happy to review it in more detail.
From a 1998 email sent to me by the then Manager of the Learning Sciences and Technology Group at Microsoft Research:
Frank, you are a good man. Have you thought about joining this team? Your only alternative, of course, is venture capital. But their usual models require getting rid of the “originator” within the first eighteen months.
Re: the praise is from 1998 and 2004
— Summary (details below) —
My work from 1992 to 2006:
is the foundation of my current plan to provide the most popular online market for customized-education and artificial-intelligence (e.g., CE-for-AI, which will be to the AI economy what oil has been to the industrial economy)
didn’t yield a business model that would’ve been disruptive to Amazon, Google, etc. (i.e., that would’ve enabled me to launch a startup that could (be expected to) survive competition from Amazon, etc.)
Since 2006 my primary focus has been innovating so MPS will:
outperform all classes of competitors (e.g., would disrupt a future startup funded initially by Bill Gates, who has donated/invested a LOT of money to advance CE)
become to the AI economy what John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil (SO) became to the industrial economy of his era (SO made Rockefeller the richest person since the Industrial Revolution)
A product of said innovating: comedy-writing craft/artfulness that’ll HELP many comedy talents earn (large) parts of: 1) a Rockefeller-ian fortune, 2) adjacent fortunes.
Re: said fortunes: The wealthiest people benefit most from advances in longevity science, often benefit most from other advances in medical research, and can invest unlimited amounts via equity-crowdfunding.
Comedy opener of my first startup comedy (SC; a serial “non-fiction novel” that I’m rewriting)
“Seventeen states,” I said, “have legalized recreational marijuana. A lot of partying happens away from home. Smoking weed gives people the munchies. Many popular night-spots don’t serve food. So there’s a greenfield opportunity at the intersection of mobile storage, weed storage, and food storage. Specifically, an opportunity for OSG [i.e., MPS] to patent my design of clothing-pockets that close via Ziploc.”
Mindy’s eyes widened for an instant. Then her lips formed a thin smile.
“I see you’re worried about developing laugh lines,” I said. “You shouldn’t be. Laugh lines are no match for modern cosmetic surgery. After all, cosmetic surgery is getting so advanced that, soon, it will be a simple matter to make a woman’s face after surgery appear completely different than her face before surgery.”
Then I tried to appear struck by a flash of insight.
“Which means,” I said, “that soon millions of Caucasian women will find it impossible to get a date! Unless . . .”
I picked up the handset of my desk phone, then appeared to dial an extension.
“It has come to my attention,” I said into the handset, “that OSG can profit obscenely by purchasing the rights to develop and market the only DNA test that enables a woman to prove she’s not Lorena Bobbitt!”
Mindy laughed.
I restored the handset to its cradle, then used my laptop. A new presentation slide appeared on the wall-mounted screen:
From a 1978 article in The New Yorker:
“When it comes to saving a bad line, [Johnny Carson] is the master”—to quote a tribute paid in my presence by George Burns.
. . . One sometimes detects a vindictive glint in Carson’s eye when a number of gags sink without risible trace, but [Tonight Show writer Pat] McCormick assures me that this is all part of the act . . .
— End of comedy opener —
. . .
Re: the making of said business plan and said serial novel
— Summary (details follow) —
In 1985 I learned that I can reliably generate comic insights [1] (e.g., I can write jokes).
That year my focus shifted to developing a likable comic persona. My approach to the developing comprised 3 steps, with a corollary:
S1: Select a problem that’s causing many people a lot of distress.
S2: Try to solve the problem.
S3: Mine the experience for comedy.
C: The more effective I am at solving (part of) the problem, the more likable my persona will be.
The problem I selected was lack of educational/economic opportunity.
In 1992 I gained exposure to the pre-Web Internet.
In 1998 I completed my 1.0 business plan for an online provider of CE and particular complements.
In 2004 I completed my 2.0 plan. Key addition: my Amazon-/VC-praised [2] design [3] of an online market that’ll: 1) provide new and improved ways for influencers (e.g., comedy writers, subject-matter experts) to earn money, 2) yield a next-gen variant of LinkedIn that’ll give rise to M-M-MANY flowmances.
In 2006 my focus shifted to leveraging comedy to make my 2.0 plan disruptive [4] (i.e., shifted to developing craft/artfulness in the requisite medium/form/genres [5]).
— Re: [1] (in 1985 I learned that I can reliably generate comic insights) —
More recently, I learned that I have what some neuroscientists call “comedy-writer brain” (e.g., my neuroanatomy includes a “flat” memory hierarchy that enables non-conscious processes of my brain to reliably identify associations that are perceived as very remote by other types of brains).
Re: comedy-writer brain
From Ha!: the Science of When We Laugh and Why:
[I]t’s worth noting that no single brain region is responsible for this type of creativity. One scientific review of seventy-two recent experiments revealed that no single brain region is consistently active during creative behavior. There is, however, something special about people who make novel connections or imagine the unimaginable. What sets them apart is the connectivity within their resting brains. This finding was discovered by a team of researchers from Tohoku in Japan, who observed that people with highly connected brains—as measured by shared brain activity over multiple regions—are more flexible and adaptive thinkers. Connected brains are creative brains.
From 1999 book The Entertainment Economy:
Re: non-conscious processes identifying remote associations
From 2017 book Stealing Fire: How Silicon Valley, the Navy SEALs, and Maverick Scientists Are Revolutionizing the Way We Live and Work:
Carhart-Harris set out to take real-time pictures of the unconscious [using neuroimaging technologies (e.g., fMRI)] and when he did, he saw the unconscious actively hunting for new ideas.
. . .
— Re: [5] (requisite medium/form/genres) —
In 2006—before smartphone apps and equity-crowdfunding—my goal for leveraging comedy was running website-marketing and site-user-showcasing as a profit center.
Keys to maximizing media profits on a risk-adjusted basis: portfolio of media properties; phased investments in production values.
So MPS’s SCs will originate as serial novels, published online.
Equity-crowdfunding was legalized in 2012.
Hence my updated/present conception of SCs . . .
. . .
Re: my focus since 2006 on developing as a serial novelist
Title of a 2007 paper in The Journal of Creative Behavior:
Ten Years to Expertise, Many More to Greatness: An Investigation of Modern Writers
Said expertise equates largely to instincts that, after (~)10 years, have become passably trustworthy.
From 2017 book Before You Know It: The Unconscious Reasons We Do What We Do:
Unconscious decisions tend to be better [than decisions made consciously] when the judgement is complex and many different dimensions or features have to be combined and integrated . . .
To take such full advantage of unconscious help we have to first do the conscious work [e.g., put in said (~)10 years] . . .
From 2017 book Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future, co-authored by MIT economist Erik Brynjolfsson:
Go is a pure strategy game —no luck involved . . .
[I]t is estimated there are about 2 x 10¹⁷⁰ (that is 2 followed by 170 zeros) possible positions on a standard Go board. . . .
. . .
Details re: the above
See below. Almost all of the details are excerpted from three sources:
my 281-page write-up that:
details my threat-analysis and FC-work
I completed soon after the current pandemic began
my 63-pager that previews and updates said 281-pager
my Substack publication titled The Biggest Short (TBS), which I was working on when I identified said comedy premise re: Ps (not) wanting to resist
See the three sources for much more re: the below.
— End of excerpt from said CvT24 URL —
All told, continuous improvement of a next-gen variant of La Catedral will require:
ideation (e.g., via CE for people, (CE-for-)AI)
implementation (e.g., via teams formed via a next-gen variant of LinkedIn)
funding (e.g., equity-crowdfunding attracted via SCs)
continuous lowering of the perceived-risk of producing improvements (e.g., lower via: 1) strengthening the case that we live (partly) in a simcom, 2) leveraging delegated EWPs)
Maximizing the yield from said continuous improvement requires:
Ps’ awareness (e.g., via comedies that showcase the “complexification” of orgies-for-free)
Ps’ confidence that they won’t be bait-and-switched (e.g., confidence via said parallels between me and a historical figure that strengthen the simcom case)
. . .
Said historical figure
Nine of said parallels/similarities
— #1 —
From history-based novel Joseph and His Brothers*, by Nobel laureate Thomas Mann:
[Joseph:] “Literature is a great thing. But greater still, to be sure, is when the life one lives is a story—and that we are in a story together, a most excellent one at that, I am more and more convinced with time.”
* published in four parts (1933-1943)
— #2 —
I’m Jewish. (My maternal great-grandparents immigrated to the U.S. from Poland in the early 1900s.)
From 1995 book The Jewish Religion: A Companion, published by Oxford University Press:
From the point of view of the tradition, the Joseph episode is seen as part of the divine plan . . .
— #3 —
Joseph interpreted a dream, then partnered with his country’s political leader to provide the benefits of the interpretation.
Similarly, the American dream of a land of opportunity . . . updated for the age of AI, CE, crowd-investment, PsIMP . . . my ongoing attempt to partner via said FFO . . .
— #4 —
KWs: encounter between foresight and evil.
From Joseph and His Brothers:
Joseph’s grand hoarding of grain and his countless cone-shaped storehouses had appeared to them [i.e., Egyptians] in a magical light. But what seemed truly magical to them was the encounter between foresight and evil here . . .
— #5 —
Joseph enriched his country’s leader, and improved the economic well-being of almost all people.
From Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer’s entry on Economic Growth in the 2008 edition of The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics:
[T]he country that takes the lead in the twenty-first century will be the one that implements an innovation that more effectively supports the production of new ideas in the private sector [e.g., AI-produced ideas].
From 2006 book Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations:
This book tells the story of a single technical paper in economics [Romer (1990): Endogenous Technical Change] . . .
. . . Romer won a race of sorts, a race within the community of university-based research economists to make sense of the process of globalization at the end of the twentieth century and to say something practical and new about how to encourage economic development . . .
From 2004 book The Mystery of Economic Growth, by a Harvard economist (my emphases):
Interest in growth theory abruptly revived . . . in the 1980s. The two key papers were by Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988). . . . Romer also initiated the second wave of research on the “new” growth theory.
. . . A more detailed study of the U.S. economy is provided by [Stanford economist Charles] Jones (2002). He found that between 1950 and 1993 improvements in educational attainments, which amounted to an increase of four years of schooling on average, explain about 30 percent of growth of output per hour. The remaining 70 percent is attributable to the rise in the stock of ideas that was produced in the United States, France, West Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
From said entry of Romer’s on Economic Growth:
Perhaps the most important ideas of all are meta-ideas—ideas about how to support the production and transmission of other ideas. . . . North Americans invented the modern research university . . .
From 2014 book SuperIntelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, by the originator of the simulation argument:
— #6 —
KWs: advancing longevity science.
From Joseph and His Brothers:
The name that Joseph received along with his titles was a name of life. It meant “The god”—Atôn, one did not have to name the name—“speaks: ‘May life be with you!’” Even that was not yet its complete meaning. Every ear that heard it in those days took this to signify not only “May you yourself live,” but also “May you be a bringer of life, may you spread life and provide life’s nourishment to the many.”
From 2020 book The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives:
[Google’s] Ray Kurzweil and longevity expert Aubrey de Grey have begun talking about “longevity escape velocity,” or the idea that soon, science will be able to extend our lives by a year for every year we live. In other words, once across this threshold, we’ll literally be staying one step ahead of death. Kurzweil thinks this threshold is about twelve years away, while de Grey puts it thirty years out.
From 2019 book Lifespan: Why We Age―and Why We Don't Have To, by the Harvard geneticist who’s one of Time magazine’s “100 most influential people” of 2014:
“It is not at all extravagant to expect that someday living to 150 will be standard. And if the Information Theory of Aging is sound, there may be no upward limit; we could potentially reset the epigenome in perpetuity.”
“How long will it be before we are able to reset our epigenome, either with molecules we ingest or by genetically modifying our bodies, as my student now does in mice? How long until we can destroy senescent cells, either by drugs or outright vaccination? How long until we can replace parts of organs, grow entire ones in genetically altered farm animals, or create them in a 3D printer? A couple of decades, perhaps. Maybe three. One or all of those innovations is coming well within the ever-increasing lifespans of most of us, though. And when that happens, how many more years will we get? The maximum potential could be centuries . . .”
“If I am wrong, it might be that I was too conservative in my predictions.”
“When technologies go exponential, even experts can be blindsided.”
“We often fail to acknowledge that knowledge is multiplicative and technologies are synergistic.”
Title of a 2020 article on CNBC.com:
The ultra-rich are investing in companies trying to reverse aging. Is it going to work?
From cbinsights.com:
From 2020 book Longevity Industry 1.0 (my emphases):
“AI for Longevity is the ‘smart money’ sector of the industry, and can achieve enormous results and accelerated timelines in terms of progress in actual, tangible, real-world Healthy Human Longevity, even with comparatively tiny levels of financing compared to other sectors.”
“The intensive application of AI to all stages of Longevity and Preventive Medicine R&D has the potential to rapidly accelerate the clinical translation of both validated and experimental diagnostics, prognostics and therapeutics, to empower patients to become the CEOs of their own health through continuous AI-driven monitoring of minor fluctuations in biomarkers . . .”
“AI will come into prominence as the critical and fundamental driver of progress in the industry . . .”
From November 30, 2020 on Google News:
— #7 —
KW: flow*.
From an entry on the blog of The Jewish Theological Seminary:
[O]f all the characters in the Torah—the Rabbis attributed to Joseph the appellation, “ha-Tzadik” (the righteous). No other character in all of the Tanakh is given this attribute by the Rabbis.
From the Wikipedia entry re: Tzadiks:
Since the late 17th century, in Hasidic Judaism, the institution of the mystical tzadik as a divine channel assumed central importance . . . [Tzadiks] embody and channel the Divine flow . . .
From The Jewish Religion: A Companion** (my emphases):
The prayer of the Zaddik for his followers to be blessed with “children, life and sustenance” is found in many a Hasidic text. The basis in the Talmud is saying (Moed Katan 28a): “Life, children and sustenance depend not on merit but on mazal.” . . . Hasidim, treating the word mazal as if it came from a root meaning to flow, use the Talmudic passage for the doctrine of tzaddikim. Even if a man does not deserve to have good health, sustenance and children on his own merits, he may be given them as a result of the special “flow” of divine blessing through the “channel” that is the tzaddik.
* For much more re: flow science and it’s centrality to MPS, see my lengthier write-ups linked-to above. Book/magazine excerpts from the write-ups:
From 2021 book The Art of the Impossible: A Peak Performance Primer:
Flow may be the biggest neurochemical cocktail of all. The state appears to blend all six of the brain’s major pleasure chemicals and may be one of the few times you get all six at once.
. . . What we can say for sure: all of these neurochemicals help explain why flow tends to show up when the impossible becomes possible. The reason? It’s because of how these neurochemicals impact all three sides of the high-performance triangle: motivation, learning, and creativity.
On the motivation side, all six of these chemicals are reward drugs, making flow one of the most rewarding experiences we can have. This is why researchers call the state “the source code of intrinsic motivation” and why McKinsey discovered that productivity is amplified 500 percent in flow—that’s the power of addictive, pleasure chemistry [my emphasis].
From 2014 book The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance:
“[T]here are extraordinarily powerful social bonding neurochemicals at the heart of both flow and group flow: dopamine and norepinephrine, that underpin romantic love . . .”
“In jazz, the group has the ideas, not the individual musicians . . . When performance peaks in groups . . . this isn’t just about individuals in flow—it’s the group entering the state together . . .”
From 1997 book Organizing Genius: The Secrets of Creative Collaboration, by eminent scholar Warren Bennis:
Great Groups are sexy places.
. . . [During Apple’s early years, Steve Jobs mandated that] employees share [hotel] rooms when they were at conventions and other professional meetings . . . to limit bed-hopping . . .
From the 2017 article in Wired titled “The Ins and Outs of Silicon Valley’s New Sexual Revolution”:
In Silicon Valley, love’s many splendors often take the form of, well, many lovers.
. . . Some workplaces (coughGooglecough) have quasi-official poly clubs . . .
From 2017 book Stealing Fire: How Silicon Valley, the Navy SEALs, and Maverick Scientists Are Revolutionizing the Way We Live and Work:
[W]e crossed the country for a trip to the Googleplex. We were there to talk flow states with engineers . . .
[W]e . . . attend[ed] the opening of their new multimillion-dollar mindfulness center. . . . Google had realized that when it comes to the highly competitive tech marketplace, helping engineers get into the zone and stay there longer was an essential . . .
We’ve been collaborating with some of the top experience designers, biohackers, and performance specialists to help develop the Flow Dojo . . . a learning lab dedicated to mapping the core building blocks of optimum performance.
In the fall of 2015 we had the opportunity to bring a prototype of the Dojo to Google’s Silicon Valley headquarters and engage in a joint-learning project. For six weeks, a handpicked team of engineers, developers, and managers committed to a flow training program, and then capped that off with two weeks in a beta version of the training center.
From the chapter titled “Group Flow” in 2017 book Group Genius: The Creative Power of Collaboration:
Patagonia was an early adopter, but soon after, Toyota, Ericsson and Microsoft made flow integral to their culture and strategy.
** The above excerpt from TJR is online.
— #8 —
KWs: mistreatment by relatives.
From the Wikipedia entry about Joseph:
Joseph’s half-brothers . . . plotted to kill him, with the exception of Reuben . . . Upon imprisoning Joseph, the brothers saw a camel caravan carrying spices and perfumes to Egypt, and sold Joseph to these merchants [i.e., sold him into slavery].
Sets of relatives of mine (Rs) have stolen ~$350K from me (in 2021 dollars), twice making my financial situation precarious and inflicting COSTLY delays to my career/AI-preneurial progress. Among the Rs: deceased aunt Helen Freedman and her daughter Judy; respectively, a past executive director (ED) of Americans for a Safe Israel (AFSI) and a present co-ED. Re: AFSI, via a 2009 article:
“Kahane.org, which is listed on the U.S. Treasury Department’s list of terrorist organizations.
In terms of ideology and fundraising, ‘there’s a pretty thin line between the Americans for a Safe Israel [my emphasis] and the Kahanists,’ said University of Pennsylvania political scientist Ian Lustick, one of the few scholars who has studied Jewish extremist groups in depth.”
“Last week’s terrorist killing of four Israeli Arabs has cast light on a network of ties linking . . . American Jewish groups [e.g., AFSI] to an extremist fringe in Israel that nurtured the Jewish gunman.”
My aunt in 2009: ED of AFSI.
From a 2002 article in The Los Angeles Times:
In 1994, AFSI’s West Coast head proclaimed Dr. Baruch Goldstein a hero and a Jewish martyr for having gunned down 29 Arabs at prayer in a West Bank mosque . . .
My aunt began working at AFSI in 1995.
Speaker at a 2015 AFSI event: Meir Jolovitz. Re: Jolovitz, via a 2019 article:
Meir Jolovitz, the national director of the [Kahanist] JDL in NY, “declared war on the enemies of the Jews” at a press conference with gun-toting, black-bereted members of the JDL. “When criminal justice is hand-cuffed,” he said, “we have to turn to Jewish justice.”
From the Wikipedia entry re: the JDL:
The Jewish Defense League (JDL) is a Jewish far-right religious-political organization . . . It was classified as “a right-wing terrorist group” by the FBI in 2001 and is considered a radical organization by the Southern Poverty Law Center [2][3]. According to the FBI, the JDL has been involved in plotting and executing acts of terrorism within the United States [2][4].
. . . According to the Anti-Defamation League, the JDL consists only of “thugs and hooligans” [13].
From a 2009 article:
A New York City rabbi condemned the call to assassinate Palestinian leaders issued at his synagogue.
He added the sponsoring organization, Americans for a Safe Israel [my emphasis], is no longer welcome to host events at his synagogue.
. . . Nadia Matar, the co-chairwoman of Women in Green, called for Israel to assassinate “all terrorist leaders, starting with Mahmoud Abbas [then the President of the Palestinian National Authority]” . . . Her remarks were greeted with applause.
From a 2017 issue of an AFSI newsletter:
[T]he group arrived in Hebron to celebrate Hebron Day there with original “settlers.” Yehudit Katzover, co-leader of Women in Green and spearhead of the Sovereignty Conferences, was there with WIG co-leader Nadia Matar [my emphasis]. . . . The AFSI group heard their amazing stories about the efforts to reclaim Hebron after the 1967 victories.
— #9 —
Joseph focused on business as a means of serving his values/God.
From Joseph and His Brothers:
“[Joseph to his brothers: ‘Y]our brother is no divine hero, no messenger of spiritual salvation, but merely a man of business . . .’”
“Joseph regarded it as his duty to encourage such plans and to assist God in their prosecution as best he knew how.”
Martin Luther King Jr.: “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.”
From The Goodness Paradox: The Strange Relationship Between Virtue and Violence in Human Evolution:
[T]here is no reason to regard our domestication as complete. How much more domesticated we could become . . . is an open question. Given sufficient sanctions against reactive aggressors . . . humans could in theory become as hard to rile as lop-eared rabbits at a petting farm, which remain gentle even when stroked repeatedly by dozens of eager children.
From thebiggestshort.substack.com/p/chapter-1-continued:
Re: the for-free in orgies-for- . . .
— Summary (details follow) —
Order for free is a proposed law of nature, hypothesized at book length in 1993 by a MacArthur Fellow (i.e., a “genius grant” recipient). Believers in the hypothesis include Nobel-Prize winners.
One type of order—complexity [1]—results from “networks of adaptive agents” (e.g., networks of people):
being subjected to selection-pressures that are new and/or are intensifying rapidly
adapting to these pressures
Adaptation that yields/increases complexity occurs at the boundary between order and chaos (i.e., in complex adaptive systems, agents are clustered at and around said boundary).
This clustering takes shape “for free” via “self-organized criticality” [2].
All told, complexity-for-free is shorthand for ‘complexity via adaptation via clustering-for-free’ [3].
Orgies-for-free (O-F-F) is a variant of clustering-for-free that will (continue to) enable people to adapt to selection-pressures of said kinds.
[1] From a 2013 article on ScientificAmerican.com:
[Stephen] Hawking was asked what he thought of the common opinion that the twentieth century was that of biology and the twenty-first century would be that of physics. Hawking replied that in his opinion the twenty-first century would be the “century of complexity” [my emphasis].
Title of a 2005 book published by Harvard Business School Press:
Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics
Title of a 2014 book published by Oxford University Press:
Complexity and the Economy
[2] From 1996 book How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality:
The system had become “critical”! There were avalanches of all sizes just as there were clusters [my emphasis] of all sizes at the “critical” point for equilibrium phase transitions.
[3] From How Nature Works:
Self-organized criticality is so far the only known general mechanism to generate complexity.
— Re: order-for-free —
From 1995 book At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity, by said MacArthur Fellow (my emphases):
[T]here are compelling reasons to believe that whenever a collection of chemicals contains enough different kinds of molecules, a metabolism will crystallize from the broth. If this argument is correct, metabolic networks need not be built one component at a time; they can spring full-grown from a primordial soup. Order for free, I call it.
. . . I believe that this order for free, which has undergirded the origin of life itself, has also undergirded the order in organisms as they have evolved and has even undergirded the very capacity to evolve itself.
— Re: complexity —
From a white paper (.pdf) published by the Washington Center for Complexity & Public Policy:
Complexity science represents a growing body of interdisciplinary knowledge about the structure, behavior and dynamics of change in a specific category of complex systems known as complex adaptive systems—open evolutionary systems in which the components are strongly interrelated, self-organizing and dynamic. Rain forests, businesses, societies, our immune systems, the World Wide Web, and the rapidly globalizing world economy can be thought of as complex adaptive systems. Each of these systems evolves in relationship to the larger environment in which it operates. To survive, the system as a whole must adapt to change.
For a lengthier preview, see the Wikipedia entry titled “Complex Adaptive System”.
— More re: complexity is a type of order —
Title of the 1992 book by a MacArthur Fellow (a colleague of said Fellow):
Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity
— Re: complexity via networks of adaptive agents —
From 2012 book Signals and Boundaries: Building Blocks for Complex Adaptive Systems, published by MIT Press:
— Re: a network of adaptive agents (e.g., people) clustered at the boundary between order and chaos —
From the 2008 book by the MacArthur Fellow who hypothesized order-for-free:
I can now summarize over forty years of work on random Boolean networks . . .
Briefly, these networks exhibit three regimes of behavior: ordered, chaotic, and critical, i.e., poised at the boundary or edge between order and chaos.
— Re: adaptation at said boundary —
Title of a 1992 book:
Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos
From said 2008 book:
[T]he most complex, but organized, behavior should occur in critical networks. In the more ordered networks the behavior would be more “frozen” and less complex.
— Re: said clustering of agents takes shape “for free” via “self-organized criticality” —
From How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality:
[C]omplex behavior in nature reflects the tendency of large systems with many components to evolve into a poised, “critical” state . . . The evolution to this very delicate state occurs without design from any outside agent. The state is established solely because of the dynamical interactions among individual elements of the system: the critical state is self-organized.
Re: O-F-F would be women-FRIENDLY almost certainly
— Summary (details below) —
The link between professional success and polyamory is unlikely to favor a particular gender.
A key to popularizing Adver-ties [i.e., MPS’s LinkedIn variant] is facilitating the build-out of complements.
OSG’s [i.e., MPS’s] facilitating will center on advancing “hyper-specialization,” for reasons explained by complexity science (i.e., this facilitating will center on speeding the complexification of the business ecosystem that centers on Adver-ties).
Some/many of the hyper-specialists in said ecosystem can be expected to make flowmantic orgies women-FRIENDLY (i.e., can be expected to compete to make said orgies entirely civilized, increasingly artful, etc.). This can be expected in LARGE part because:
Amazon of CE . . . via popularizing Adver-ties . . .
Women are ~60% of recent college grads in many countries (e.g., the U.S.).
Women can invest B-B-BILLION$ via crowd-investing (e.g., via equity- crowdfunding).
So Amazon of CE via making Adver-ties POPULAR with women . . .
OSG could employ/REWARD specialists who make flowmantic orgies women-FRIENDLY (e.g., employ via raising equity-crowdfunding from MANY women).
— Re: the link between professional success and polyamory is unlikely to favor a particular gender —
From Untrue: Why Nearly Everything We Believe About Women, Lust, and Infidelity Is Wrong and How the New Science Can Set Us Free:
[A] 2017 study shows that among women aged twenty-five to twenty-nine, group sex and threesome experience equaled that of men the same age, and women were nearly twice as likely to have gone to a dungeon, BDSM, swingers’, or sex party.
Untrue’s author is a woman who has a PhD from Yale and a background in anthropology.
From 2013 book What Do Women Want?: Adventures in the Science of Female Desire:
[R]ecent science and women’s voices left me with pointed lessons:
That women’s desire—its inherent range and innate power—is an underestimated and constrained force, even in our times . . .
[T]his force is not, for the most part, sparked or sustained by emotional intimacy and safety . . .
[O]ne of our most comforting assumptions, . . . that female eros is much better made for monogamy than the male libido, is scarcely more than a fairy tale.
What’s author is a contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine and the author of five books of nonfiction.
From a 2012 book:
The most patient and thorough research about the hook-up culture shows that over the long run, women benefit greatly from living in a world where they can have sexual adventure without commitment . . . and where they can enter into temporary relationships that don’t derail their careers.
To put it crudely, now feminist progress is largely dependent on hook-up culture. To a surprising degree, it is women—not men—who are perpetuating the culture . . .
The book’s author is Hanna Rosin, then a national correspondent for The Atlantic.
From What Do Women Want?:
Terri Fisher, a psychologist at Ohio State University . . . asked two hundred female and male undergraduates to complete a questionnaire dealing with masturbation and the use of porn. The subjects were split into groups and wrote their answers under three different conditions: either they were instructed to hand the finished questionnaire to a fellow college student, who waited just beyond an open door and was able to watch the subjects work; or they were given explicit assurances that their answers would be kept anonymous; or they were hooked up to a fake polygraph machine, with bogus electrodes taped to their hands, forearms, and necks.
The male replies were about the same under each of the three conditions, but for the females the circumstances were crucial. Many of the women in the first group—the ones who could well have worried that another student would see their answers—said they’d never masturbated, never checked out anything X-rated. The women who were told they would have strict confidentiality answered yes a lot more. And the women who thought they were wired to a lie detector replied almost identically to the men.
. . . When Fisher employed the same three conditions and asked women how many sexual partners they’d had, subjects in the first group gave answers 70 percent lower than women wearing the phony electrodes. Diligently, she ran this part of the experiment a second time, with three hundred new participants. The women who thought they were being polygraphed not only reported more partners than the rest of the female subjects, they also . . . gave numbers a good deal higher than the men.
From 2011 book Chick Lit and Postfeminism, published by the University of Virginia Press:
“The overwhelming popularity of chick lit . . . can be traced to the social reality of its readership with regard to work . . . [Via chick lit’s] attempts at synthesis of work and love it shows the challenges of straddling both realms.”
“One of chick lit’s contributions as a genre is the production of what we might call a sexual theory of late capitalism . . .”
“The high number of sexual partners the chick lit protagonist experiences parallels the romance’s pattern of the questing hero’s confronting false or impostor versions of his eventual beloved.”
“Though an offshoot of popular romance, chick lit transforms it significantly, virtually jettisoning the figure of the heterosexual [male] hero . . .
Men are not really valued as individuals as much as means to a lifestyle . . .
Even texts that end with marital happiness present a predominantly depressing take on marriage.
. . . Chick lit heroines’ preoccupation with money . . . is normative with recent real-life social science findings: researchers . . . have found that the worst fear for single women . . . is having no money.”
— Re: hyper-specialization —
From a 2011 article in Harvard Business Review:
Much of the prosperity our world now enjoys comes from the productivity gains of dividing work into ever smaller tasks performed by ever more specialized workers. Today, thanks to the rise of knowledge work and communications technology, this subdivision of labor has advanced to a point where the next difference in degree will constitute a difference in kind. We are entering an era of hyper-specialization . . .
. . . [W]e will now see knowledge-worker jobs—salesperson, secretary, engineer—atomize into complex networks of people [my emphasis] all over the world performing highly specialized tasks . . .
— Re: Adver-ties can be expected to advance hyper-specialization —
Activity in a market generates new kinds of knowledge. This knowledge typically increases specialization.
From 2017 book Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future, co-authored by MIT economist Erik Brynjolfsson:
The Magic of Markets, the Purest Crowds of All
Large collections of information like libraries and the web are obviously valuable because we can consult and learn from them. Many crowd-created collections have another benefit: as they accumulate the contributions of many people, they spontaneously generate new kinds of knowledge. This is a kind of magic that actually happens, all the time.
From 2014 book Complexity: A Very Short Introduction:
Niche formation through co-evolution
. . . When we look at realistic niches, whether they be market niches . . . we see a complicated recirculation of resources and signals [e.g., price signals] . . .
How did this complex network of interactions evolve?
The short answer is co-evolution through recombination of building blocks . . . Cascades of increasingly specialized agents result [my emphasis]. As is nicely described by Samuelson in his classic text Economics, there is a multiplier effect in cascades . . . The multiplier effect in a typical cascade may be 4 (or more), indicating that the initial payment has the effect of four separate injections of cash . . .
The multiplier effect that accompanies the re-use of resources in a cascade typically drives the occupants of a niche to increasing specialization.
From Machine, Platform, Crowd (my emphases):
The first person to clearly point out this benefit [i.e., new knowledge via activity in markets], and thus to become a kind of patron saint of the crowd, was the Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek in his 1945 article “The Uses of Knowledge in Society.”
. . . Hayek’s paper, which anticipated many of the ideas of what would coalesce into complexity theory later in the twentieth century . . .
— Precedent re: specialists who’d make O-F-F women-FRIENDLY —
Cover of a 2007 book:
— End of excerpt from thebiggestshort.substack.com —
Re: Adver-ties, via thebiggestshort.substack.com/p/chapter-1:
OSG’s 1.0 implementation of the site/app will feature:
a market for the advertisement spaces on solo-blogger blogs (e.g., portfolio blogs) [1]
a virtual currency (cash transactions will be supported also)
Prices in OSG’s virtual currency (OVC) will contain/reflect only truthful peer ratings of work samples. Ratings of this kind are a top predictor of work performance, according to a much-cited meta-analysis of 85 years of personnel-selection research (5670 citations as of October 16, 2020[; 6069 on September 18, 2021]) [2]. Other top predictors of work performance are often unavailable (e.g., test results). So OVC prices will be ideal for ranking people within individual job/skill categories. These rankings will make it much easier for Jane Q. Upwardly-Mobile to identify others who (can) best complement her (ditto for John Q.).
[1] An ad space sold for OVC will typically be on the homepage (i.e., front page) of the seller’s blog; key reasons: 1) sales of spaces for OVC will occur via weekly auctions, 2) per week, each blogger will be able to sell only one ad space for OVC (which space is sold can vary weekly). Keywords re: said auctions: sealed-bid, second-price; combinatorial auctions via fractional allocations, so each week’s auction will provide a “spot” market and an “up-front” market; traders will make these markets “information-efficient.”
[2] From 2015 book Work Rules!: Insights from Inside Google That Will Transform How You Live and Lead, by Google’s then head of “People Operations”:
. . .
From the Schmidt-Hunter paper linked-to above:
. . .
Re: Adver-ties will be a debugged version of BlogShares.com
From a 2003 article on rediff.com:
The latest sensation that’s grabbing the attention of netizens is BlogShares . . . an online stock market in which you get to speculate on the future of your favourite blogs. . . . Every player gets 500 BlogShare dollars upon signup.
. . . How you play BlogShares depends on what you want from it. For some, the objective is to get their blogs on the Top 100 Index.
. . . At the end of a three-week phase of beta testing, there were a staggering 40,000 listed blogs. Over 5000 active players carry out thousands of transactions every day . . .
Re: the fatal flaw of BlogShares
The price mechanism was easily gamed. From the rediff.com article:
[Inbound] links are the assets that drive valuations.
Re: bloggers will be able to parlay a high and/or fast-rising ad rate in OVC into cash via: 1) sales of other ad spaces, 2) affiliate-marketing commissions, 3) subscriptions
Keywords: influencer marketing (IM), antidote to the epidemic of IM fraud. Some details follow; more below.
Izea: 71% of influencers had a blog in 2018; 39% of advertisers sponsored blog posts in 2018; 67% of social-media users in 2020 aspire to be paid social-media influencers.
Mediakix: 44% of advertisers consider blogs to be among the social-media channels that are most important for IM in 2020 (Facebook: 45%; Twitter: 33%; LinkedIn: 19%); 50% of advertisers consider fraud the #1 drawback of IM in 2020.
Re: a high and/or fast-rising ad rate in OVC will be achievable partly via OSG’s prediction markets (OPMs)
High prices/rankings in OPMs will serve as PageRank-like pointers to high-quality blogs. Details are in a section below. Keywords: OPM prices denominated in OVC.
From 2018 book Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence, published by Harvard Business School Press:
AI is a prediction technology . . .
. . . What will new AI technologies make so cheap? Prediction.
. . . When prediction is cheap, there will be more prediction and more complements to prediction [my emphasis].
. . .
More precedents for Adver-ties
Google’s PageRank search algorithm (first use of hyperlinks to inform search results)
peer assessments associated with popular MOOCs (massively open online courses)
LinkExchange.com
GitHub.com
PageRank 1.0 was based on insights from social-network analysis that were decades old when PageRank was conceived. (Similarly, LinkedIn et al. could’ve productized said 85-years-of-personnel-selection-research long ago.)
From a 1998 paper co-authored by Google’s founders:
There has been a great deal of work on academic-citation analysis [Gar[19]95]. Goffman [Gof71] . . .
Number of search engines launched before Google: 20.
From 2013 paper “Tuned Models of Peer Assessment in MOOCs,” co-authored by several employees of MOOC provider Coursera ($443M raised):
Peer assessment—which has been historically used for logistical, pedagogical, metacognitive, and affective benefits . . .—offers a promising solution that can scale the grading of complex assignments in courses with tens or even hundreds of thousands of students.
From the 1998 article in The Wall Street Journal titled “Microsoft Buys LinkExchange For About $250 Million in Stock”:
LinkExchange . . . places ad banners on about 400,000 Web sites, though many of those sites are obscure personal homepages [e.g., blogs] . . .
LinkExchange, founded in 1996, has taken a unique approach that has allowed it to grow its network of sites very quickly. The company allows member Web sites to advertise for free on other sites throughout the LinkExchange network—provided they agree to return the favor.
From a 2016 article on the website of Harvard Business Review (my emphases):
How can companies get a better idea of which skills employees and job candidates have? . . . One potential model is GitHub.
. . . Ideally, this [desired variant of GitHub] would also be a social network and e-portfolio, allowing an employer to see samples of work and trust that the skills presented had been validated by others. (The social component of GitHub is important to underscore because other developers validate and consume another developer’s work. This contrasts starkly with the “skills”— if we can call them that—that users can tag so quickly on LinkedIn, such as “higher education” or even “ninja.”)
More re: the business case for Adver-ties
LinkedIn was acquired by Microsoft for $26.2 billion in 2016.
Title of a 2018 article on TechRepublic.com:
Why Linkedin + GitHub profiles could be the hidden gem in $7.5B Microsoft acquisition [of GitHub]
Re: popularizing Adver-ties will be foundational for popularizing OSG’s market for CE & AI
Outputs from activity at and around Adver-ties (e.g., prices) will be inputs to OSG’s prediction markets (PMs). After Adver-ties catalyzes the popularization of OSG’s “1.0” PMs, outputs from activity at and around the PMs (e.g., 2.0 PMs) will be inputs to Adver-ties (i.e., the popularization of Adver-ties and the PMs will become mutually reinforcing). Both sets of said outputs will be inputs to OSG’s market for CE/AI (e.g., the outputs will help/enable consumers of CE/AI to feel confident that they’re receiving value for their expenditures).
— Precedent for said dependencies between markets —
financial-capital markets (e.g., prices output by an equities market are inputs to an equity-derivatives market)
— Re: outputs from Adver-ties being inputs to OSG’s CE/AI market —
From the 2015 article in The New York Times titled “Finding a Career Track in LinkedIn Profiles”:
[M]uch of what we need to know about the changing labor market is crowdsourced in real time. And many of those digital breadcrumbs end up in LinkedIn profiles.
From a 2015 interview of Michael Horn, co-author of [2008 book] Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns:
[W]e’re really in the early beginnings of the dramatic revolution that we’ve seen in a lot of other technology sectors where really smart recommendation engines come in and assist the student in picking and choosing their unique path. . . .
In order to really go towards adaptive learning, you need huge numbers of students on your platform . . .
We need platforms that can collect the data we need and can make better use of data so that we can figure out different ways to serve different learners.
[Disrupting Class was co-authored by Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen, originator of the canonical models of disruptive innovation.
From 2015 book The End of College: Creating the Future of Learning and the University of Everywhere:
“I asked Michael [Staton, a partner in a venture capital firm focused on education and technology] to introduce me to some of the startups that he found most exciting . . .
[Clayton] Christensen was cited ad nauseum by everyone we met.”
“The University of Everywhere will solve the basic problem that has bedeviled universities since they were first invented over a millennium ago: how to provide a personalized, individual education to large numbers of people at a reasonable price.”]
From 2016 book Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations:
At the high end of the labor ladder, professionals already have a global intelligent algorithm to draw on: LinkedIn, the career professional social networking site. But its founders now want to extend that intelligent algorithm to the whole world of work by creating a global “economic graph.” Here is how LinkedIn’s CEO, Jeff Weiner, describes it on his company blog:
Reid Hoffman and the other founders of LinkedIn initially created a platform to help people tap the value of their professional networks, and developed an infrastructure that could map those relationships up to three degrees. In doing so, they provided the foundation for what would eventually become the world’s largest professional graph.
Our current long-term vision at LinkedIn is to extend this professional graph into an economic graph by digitally manifesting every economic opportunity [i.e., job] in the world (full-time and temporary); the skills required to obtain those opportunities; the profiles for every company in the world offering those opportunities; the professional profiles for every one of the roughly 3.3 billion people in the global workforce; and subsequently overlay the professional knowledge of those individuals and companies onto the “graph” [so that individual professionals could share their expertise and experience with anyone].
Anyone will be able to access intelligent networks such as LinkedIn’s global graph, see what skills are in demand or available, and even offer up online courses. You might teach knitting or editing or gardening or plumbing or engine repair. So many more people will be incentivized to offer their expertise to others, and the market for it will be vastly expanded.
Added Weiner:
With the existence of an economic graph, we could look at where the jobs are in any given locality, identify the fastest growing jobs in that area, the skills required to obtain those jobs, the skills of the existing aggregate workforce there, and then quantify the size of the gap. Even more importantly, we could then provide a feed of that data to local vocational training facilities, junior colleges, etc., so they could develop a just-in-time curriculum that provides local job seekers the skills they need to obtain the jobs that are and will be, and not just the jobs that once were.
Separately, we could provide current college students the ability to see the career paths of all of their school’s alumni by company, geography, and functional role.
From 2018 book A New U: Faster + Cheaper Alternatives to College, by a VC whose focus is education:
“LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner’s vision for an ‘economic graph’ is the clearest expression by any technology company of the competency marketplace future.”
“[T]echnological developments will complete the faster + cheaper revolution. The resulting ‘competency marketplaces’ . . .”
“The historic disconnect between higher education and employer needs is a data problem. . . .
Technology has begun to change this . . . first via the increasing availability of competency data: e-portfolios . . .”
. . .
— Re: OSG’s offerings a/o clones will advance LS —
Summary (details follow)
Many/most advances of LS will derive at least partly from the “garage biotech” ecosystem (i.e., from (very) small biotech-firms).
In many cases, these firms (LS-GBFs) will be co-founded by specialists who leverage Adver-ties a/o clones to find each other.
In many/most cases, LS-GBFs will:
post-founding, leverage Adver-ties a/o clones to recruit specialists (e.g., employees, contractors)
use a LOT of AI
Many LS-GBFs will seek equity-crowdfunding (i.e., will want to be showcased in/on SCs).
Many of said specialists will enter their field via CE, not least because OSG will:
race to provide a loan program for CE consumers (i.e., loans that will be variants of today’s “private” student loans)
learn continuously as a means of:
lowering the interest rates of CE loans
providing alternatives to loans (e.g., income-share agreements, livelihood insurance)
improving these alternatives
LS-BigCos will benefit also from OSG’s offerings a/o clones.
Re: garage biotech
From 2011 book Biopunk: Solving Biotech’s Biggest Problems in Kitchens and Garages:
Schloendorn told me his new company had just received a half-million dollar investment . . . To raise money, he needed to show he could create the right conditions for a white blood cell to kill a cancer cell. . . . [Schloendorn says:] “To blow up the first cancer cell—that’s the risk. And so we just went with the minimal equipment needed to blow up a cancer cell. And we could do that at the kitchen table.”
From 2010 book Biology Is Technology: The Promise, Peril and New Business of Engineering Life, published by Harvard University Press:
Biotech . . . technology is changing so rapidly that, within just a few years, the power of today’s elite academic and industrial laboratories will be affordable and available to individuals. . . . It is thus no surprise . . . that garage hacking—that garage innovation—has come to biology.
Re: many/most LS advances (partly) via LS-GBFs
From a 2018 article on CNBC.com:
[P]int-size ventures are driving pharma innovation. The majority of drugs approved in recent years originated at smaller outfits—63 percent of them over the last five years, according to HBM Partners, a health-care investing firm.
Re: LS-GBFs leveraging Adver-ties a/o a clone (part 1 of 2)
From a 2011 article in The Atlantic:
The Rise of Backyard Biotech
Powered by social networking, file sharing, and e-mail, a new cottage industry is bringing niche drugs to market.
. . . FerroKin is seven employees who work from home, and a collection of about 60 vendors and contractors who supply all the disparate pieces of the drug-development process. Rienhoff, a physician and former venture capitalist, founded it in 2007 as a start-up, a virtual biotech company. Since then, his team has picked up talent and resources as needed, raising $27 million and seeing a drug from development into Phase 2 clinical trials.
. . . The small industries and biotech freelancers springing up are, in some ways, like the divisions of the old behemoth drug company, but connected only by the tendrils of the Internet, and the relationships that grow so easily there. Rienhoff is contemporary biotech’s answer to the lost Renaissance man. He pulls the renaissance effect out of the network around him, using . . . the global community to fight the terrible complexity of disease.
Re: LS-GBFs using a LOT of AI
From 2020 book Longevity Industry 1.0 (my emphases):
“AI for Longevity is the ‘smart money’ sector of the industry, and can achieve enormous results and accelerated timelines in terms of progress in actual, tangible, real-world Healthy Human Longevity, even with comparatively tiny levels of financing compared to other sectors.”
. . .
“AI will come into prominence as the critical and fundamental driver of progress in the industry . . .”
From The Future Is Faster Than You Think:
[T]he speed of drug development is accelerating, not only because biotechnology is progressing at an exponential rate, but because artificial intelligence . . .
Re: LS-GBFs leveraging Adver-ties a/o a clone (part 2 of 2)
From Longevity Industry 1.0:
The fourth pillar, the one with the greatest potential to create real-world effects on human Longevity in short time-frames, and the one with the highest ratios of cost to effectiveness, is the application of AI and Data Science to Longevity.
. . . What the fourth pillar needs for this to become reality, however, is intelligent coordination and harmonization of experts and industry stakeholders (AI specialists, longevity scientists and entrepreneurs, investors [my emphasis] . . .) . . .
Re: GBFs wanting to be showcased in/on SCs
From a 2015 article titled “Biotech in the Garage”:
Sites like Experiment offer nontraditional sources of funding for researchers in the early stages. One example of what the future might hold is a project aimed at discovering a new treatment for Ebola, which recently raised $140,000 in crowdfunding. Before launching the $140,000 campaign, they first launched a $5,000 fundraising campaign, which gave them enough capital to prove some assumptions cheaply by running experiments through Science Exchange. Only after getting positive results did they decide to raise more for the next phase. This lean setup—raising a small amount to test assumptions cheaply then repeating the process with increasing amounts of capital—will likely become more common over the next decade. This mirrors what happens now with software but has only recently become possible in biotech because of the trends mentioned above.
Re: LS BigCos will benefit from OSG’s offerings a/o clones
From a 2019 article in Outsourcing Pharma:
The demand for AI technologies and AI talent is growing in the pharma and healthcare industries and driving the formation of a new interdisciplinary field— data-driven drug discovery/healthcare. Acquiring the best AI startups will dominate the biopharma industry [my emphasis].
From 2011 book The New Players in Life Sciences Innovation, published by the Financial Times Press:
Rapid advances in science and its applications, together with changes in market conditions, are forcing a transformation of business models within the life science industries. . . . Perhaps the most obvious change in business models is the gradual demise of the large fully integrated pharma company (FIPCO) and its gradual replacement with the virtually integrated one (VIPCO) . . . based on complex systems of partnerships, both with academia and scientific institutions and with contract research, manufacturing, and sales organizations (CRO, CMO, CSO).
. . . Lilly is quickly transforming itself from a vertically integrated pharmaceutical company into a fully integrated pharmaceutical network that outsources most functions. Merck has chosen to close many of its R&D labs in Europe and relies on a network of collaborative partnerships that include R&D, drug development, and technology licensing.
— End of excerpt from thebiggestshort.substack.com —
— End of parallel/similarity #9 —
Re: EWPs-to-MPS would add a parallel of said kind that STRENGTHENS the simcom case
From Joseph and His Brothers:
“[Pharaoh to Joseph:] ‘I will invest you with the sovereignty and splendor of my throne. . . .’
. . . [T]he conditions that dominated the first crucial ten to fourteen years of his [i.e., Joseph’s] tenure in office—conditions in anticipation of which he had been installed . . . made the man who had predicted it—who had taken precautions and knew how to help people get through it tolerably well—practically the most important figure in the empire and gave to his decrees a life-and-death significance unlike those of any others.”
“‘If I am not mistaken as to the man,’ Joseph continued, ‘—and how could I be, since Pharaoh will choose him [to fill the role that Joseph described[*], then was chosen by Pharaoh to fill]—he will likewise direct his attention beyond the borders of the Two Lands [i.e., Egypt] and see to it that disloyalty is smothered . . .’”
* Another parallel . . .
Re: said parallels might make Ps CONFIDENT that they wouldn’t be denied MLC via being bait-and-switched
CONFIDENT in particular because a parallel would be added/strengthened by MPS not baiting-and-switching . . .
From 2019 book Joseph and the Way of Forgiveness (my emphases):
“JOSEPH AND HIS BROTHERS” is the final section of the Book of Genesis. Tolstoy called it the most beautiful story in the world. It takes its hero through a death and transformation, from the charming but arrogant brat of its first part to the master of reality of its last, and it has an all-embracing forgiveness at its core.
. . . The next thing was to let these terrified men know that he had forgiven them . . . Actually, forgiveness was an inaccurate word for what he was experiencing, since it implies that a magnanimous “I” grants something to a not-necessarily-deserving “you.” It wasn’t like that at all. He wasn’t granting anything or even doing anything. He realized that his brothers were guilty, but he also saw the innocence in that guilt. True forgiveness, he had learned, is the realization that there is nothing to forgive. His brothers simply hadn’t known what they were doing. And given the violence of their emotions, there was nothing else they could have done.
. . .
Bonus motivation for President Biden to delegate EWPs to MPS
From a 2020 report by the Pew Research Center:
Importantly, Joseph is highly regarded by Muslims and many Christians.
From the Wikipedia entry re: Joseph:
“Joseph (Arabic: يوسُف, Yūsuf) is regarded by Muslims as a prophet (Quran, suras vi. 84, xl. 34), and a whole chapter Yusuf (sura xii.) is devoted to him, the only instance in the Quran in which an entire chapter is devoted to a complete story of a prophet. It is described as the ‘best of stories’.”
“Joseph is mentioned in the New Testament as an example of faith (Hebrews 11:22).
Joseph is commemorated as one of the Holy Forefathers in the Calendar of Saints of the Armenian Apostolic Church on 26 July. In the Eastern Orthodox Church and those Eastern Catholic Churches which follow the Byzantine Rite, he is known as "Joseph the all-comely", a reference not only to his physical appearance, but more importantly to the beauty of his spiritual life. They commemorate him on the Sunday of the Holy Forefathers (two Sundays before Christmas) and on Holy and Great Monday (Monday of Holy Week). In icons, he is sometimes depicted wearing the nemes headdress of an Egyptian vizier. The Lutheran Church–Missouri Synod commemorates him as a patriarch on 31 March.
. . . In addition to honoring him, there was a strong tendency in the patristic period to view his life as a typological precursor to Christ.”
From 2007 book Joseph’s Bones: Understanding the Struggle Between God and Mankind in the Bible, published by an imprint of Penguin Books (now an imprint of Penguin Random House):
The Parallels Between Jesus and Joseph
Many of the elements of connectedness between Jesus and Joseph have long been noted. In his Pensees, Blaise Pascal, the seventeenth-century mathematician and philosopher, called attention to these parallels as part of his “proofs of Jesus Christ.” For Pascal, Jesus was “typified” by Joseph . . .
. . . The key point around which all else turns is that Jesus is a Jew whose Bible is the Hebrew Bible, most centrally the first five books, the Torah. This, of course, includes the story of Joseph. Further, it must be assumed that Jesus himself was aware of all or almost all of the parallels between himself and Joseph. Moreover, Jesus in the story is presented as a Biblical scholar, capable even as a child of astounding the experts.
. . . In considering how the Torah affected Jesus, one could think of him as having modeled himself on Joseph . . .
Another reason that the parallels between Joseph and me fit MPS-in-a-simcom
From Joseph and His Brothers (my emphases):
But what seemed truly magical to them [i.e., Egyptians] was the encounter between foresight and evil here—which is to say, the way in which the Spender of Shade [i.e., Joseph] led evil around by the nose . . . This was unexpectedly good-humored magic that simply made them laugh.
. . . Even far beyond Egypt’s borders, this was the general opinion of Joseph’s administration. It was a source of laughter . . .
Re: more of my personal history (not previewed above) fits MPS-in-a-simcom
Details coming ASAP. Preview:
In 1999 or 2000 I met with Jeff Stilson, then the head writer of The Chris Rock Show on HBO. (The dot-com boom was ongoing, so Jeff’s agent wanted him to look into the Internet.) Jeff and I discussed my design of a simcom that could’ve been implemented using then-current technology (i.e., a simcom that I conceived before the simulation argument was published in 2003). Re: the fit between said design and MPS-in-a-simcom:
My ‘99-‘00 design:
was conceived to complement my forerunner of said next-gen variant of LinkedIn (the variant was designed in ‘02-‘03)
would’ve yielded an online variant of The Apprentice, the TV show that:
debuted in 2004
was the 7th-most-watched show that year
featured Donald Trump from ‘04 to ‘17
MPS’s comedy-vs.-Trump-2024 could include MPS’s implementation of the ‘99-‘00 design.
Coincidental strengthening of the simcom case?
From Google News as I’m finishing this write-up on June 14:
#!! :-)
— End of excerpt from my June 2021 write-up —
— End of “Re: a key” —